September 8, 2015
"Anyone who thinks they know the outcome is a fool" - Professor John Curtice.
FPA members heard today that although there has been a consistent 10 per cent opinion poll lead for the "Stay" side in the coming EU referundum, this was relatively recent and confined to 2015.
Professor John Curtice, Politics Professor of the University of Strathclyde, said a great deal depended on the negotiations and how they were perceived by the public and the more Eurospectic the rhetoric of the pro EU campaign, the more chance it has of succeeding.
This view was endorsed by Professor Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe, a group of academics whose aim is to inform the debate on Britain's future in the EU with facts, research and evidence - not emotion. "Hold your nose and vote to stay in" was how he saw the pro camp developing. Professor Simon Hix said the Prime Minister's initial demands had come down to two issues: controlling migration, and protecting the interests of the City of London. In the end, for most voters the question was "Do we want to stay in the EU?"; no matter what David Cameron brought home from Brussels, the antis will remain anit, and the pros will remain pro.
Jonathan Portes, Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said all the various figures of the cost of staying or leaving were highly dubious. Professor Laura Cram said her research would be concentrating on how people responded on the various communications coming their way, from face-to-face meetings to online, printed Twitter and so on.
Simon Hix thought that the more migration quotas became an issue, the more it helped the "Leave" side. Which was why the PM could not accept EU quotas as the anti EU side would pounce - "See, he's controlled from Brussels, we must leave the EU". The panel agreed there was a little emotional affinity in Britain for the EU, but there was a certain sense of attachment and affection which could win the way, particularly if crises over migration and the Eurzone eased off.
