SCOTLAND: The Gap Narrows.

"In reality the SNP is a narrow nationalist party" – Rory Stewart MP

The MP for Penrith & the Border, Rory Stewart, told FPA members that though the SNP tried to present itself as progressive, it was a typical nationalist party. Its message: we Scots are different, we are better than the English, and our problems will be solved if only we can get rid of these people. He said the debate about Scotland was really about identity; do you think you are Scottish and British, or just Scottish? Rory Stewart said he had assumed that his time as an MP would be dominated by what was the biggest question in British politics for generations, but actually nobody either listened to or reported his speeches in the House of Commons; it had been a really sad revelation of something very wrong in British politics. Scottish separation would be a humiliation for the English; for ten years Britain would be turned in on itself and all its political energy would be wasted at a time when we should be looking outwards to the world. The armed forces would have to be cut and there would be economic uncertainty. Rory Stewart said it was naïve and complacent of the English to think that the end of the Union was not relevant to them.

“Better Together has been hopeless” – Peter Kellner, President of YouGov

Peter Kellner said it had looked so arrogant for Better Together to say to the nationalists, “You can’t have the pound, you won’t be able to stay in the EU”;  the tone should have been much more understanding, and present a much smaller target to Alex Salmond. Alex Salmond was without question the shrewdest politician client YouGov had ever had (he had been a client in the past); he was Britain’s most skilful political campaigner. He had successfully generated his own fear factor about the NHS in response to the fears generated by Better Together, and the Yes campaign had simply been much more effective and visible. Peter Kellner said only a small number of ‘Don’t knows’ would actually vote in the referendum; the latest YouGov poll would be out at 10 pm tonight and he was not in a position to talk about it. A Yes vote might force David Cameron from office, and it would be bad also for Ed Miliband; it was after all Labour voters who had moved over to the nationalist camp. He said there would be no exit polls on the 18^th as they were too expensive and very complex to carry out reliably. The result of the referendum should be known by breakfast time on September the 19^th.

FPA Vice President, Jurgen Kronig and YouGov President, Peter Kellner

SOCIAL EVENING OCTOBER 1,  2014

Award-winning Guardian investigative journalist, Nick Davies

NICK DAVIES AT THE FPA

Join your FPA colleagues at the Polish Club on October 1 to hear award-winning investigative journalist, Nick Davies, talk about his explosive new book, 'Hack Attack: How the truth caught up with Rupert Murdoch'.


The  book has been long-listed for the Samuel Johnson prize for non-fiction and George Clooney is considering turning it into a film.


Stay for a drinks and a chat afterwards or enjoy dinner at the Club's restaurant.

To RSVP and book, please click Nick Davies talk

What will happen if Scotland votes YES, and what will happen if Scotland votes NO?

It was another full house at the FPA on September 5 for a detailed briefing on the Scottish referendum.

Professor Robert Hazell, Director of the Constitution Unit in the School of Public Policy at University College London told FPA members that - if the vote was a YES for an independent Scotland – his guess was that independence wouldn’t come until April 2017 at the earliest, about the same time as the in/out referendum on the EU promised by the Prime Minister in the event of a Conservative Government being formed after the General Election next year. He predicted that giving effect to Scottish independence would be the main preoccupation of the UK Government for the next three to five years, and suggested that a second referendum might be needed when the actual terms of independence were known. While a YES vote would be a severe blow to Britain’s international prestige, he didn’t think there would be any tangible effects; we would keep our seat on the UN Security Council and would remain one of the larger states in the EU.

 Professor Charlie Jeffery, Director of ESRC Future of UK and Scotland programme and Professor of Politics at the University of Edinburgh spoke about the implications of a NO vote, which in his view would represent a failure to persuade the Scots to vote yes, rather than a positive endorsement of the Union. All polling showed that the Scots did not feel they had an influence on UK politics at the UK level. After a No vote, there might well be pressure for a constitutional convention for the United Kingdom, and any debate could easily get bogged down and last for ages. It was possible to imagine a scenario where Scotland voted NO, but the SNP won the Scottish elections in 2016. Imagine a majority of voters in England then voted to leave the EU, but a majority in Scotland voted to stay; then what?

Professor Hazell described it as a neverendum:  the question of independence will still be with us in a hundred years if Scotland is still part of the UK, and that was fine and healthy.