UK foreign policy is entering a challenging phase as the country faces a prolonged period of uncertainty over its membership of Europe, combined with a weakening of central power in a multi party system.
That’s the view of Chatham House Director Robin Niblett to an audience of foreign journalists on Tuesday. He thought UK governments would find it much more difficult to lead on foreign policy issues for years to come.
Speaking on the opportunities and challenges facing the next UK government, Dr Niblett said that – regardless of the outcome of the general election – he envisaged that Britain would hold an in-out referendum on its EU membership within the next ten to fifteen years.
If David Cameron's Conservatives hold on to power, the UK will be distracted for two years as the country prepares for a poll in 2017. Under a Cameron government, Dr Niblett predicted there would be a good chance of a 'yes' vote to retain EU membership.
Even if Labour take power, Ed Milliband's rejection of a referendum would not prevent the Labour party having to allow a vote on EU membership further down the line, he predicted.
Dr Niblett partially agreed that the UK's foreign policy had been on the back foot under the current government, citing the diminished importance of the 'special relationship' with the US.
This was partly due to public fatigue and scepticism following military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, but also because austerity had put pressure on defence and diplomatic budgets.
However, Dr Niblett said he believed the UK's Trident nuclear deterrent was safe.
Dr Niblett was keen to put UK foreign policy in a global context, saying Britain was still in the “top rank.” London had retained and built on its status as a hub for international discussion, he said, leading the way on issues such as sexual violence in conflict and tax avoidance.
Despite playing a more cautious role in the world, Dr Niblett outlined three areas where the next UK government would be under considerable pressure to act: the Middle East, Russia and Climate Change.
Dr Niblett said Europe was facing an existential moment of truth about the “tsunami of migrants” heading from the Middle East and Africa.
The UK would have to act decisively on the issue of Russian sanctions in July, when the EU is set to debate whether to continue with them. Dr Niblett said he felt the UK should argue to continue sanctions at their current level as long as Russia upholds the terms of the Minsk II agreement over Ukraine.
What the EU wanted was the rule of law within the EU and its neighbourhood; this was the best way to keep Europe strong. The EU could live with a “frozen conflict” confined to the south east corner of Ukraine, he said.
And he thought the UK would be under pressure play a leading role in the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris this December, particularly on the issue of coal consumption.
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