SCOTLAND: The Gap Narrows.

"In reality the SNP is a narrow nationalist party" – Rory Stewart MP

The MP for Penrith & the Border, Rory Stewart, told FPA members that though the SNP tried to present itself as progressive, it was a typical nationalist party. Its message: we Scots are different, we are better than the English, and our problems will be solved if only we can get rid of these people. He said the debate about Scotland was really about identity; do you think you are Scottish and British, or just Scottish? Rory Stewart said he had assumed that his time as an MP would be dominated by what was the biggest question in British politics for generations, but actually nobody either listened to or reported his speeches in the House of Commons; it had been a really sad revelation of something very wrong in British politics. Scottish separation would be a humiliation for the English; for ten years Britain would be turned in on itself and all its political energy would be wasted at a time when we should be looking outwards to the world. The armed forces would have to be cut and there would be economic uncertainty. Rory Stewart said it was naïve and complacent of the English to think that the end of the Union was not relevant to them.

“Better Together has been hopeless” – Peter Kellner, President of YouGov

Peter Kellner said it had looked so arrogant for Better Together to say to the nationalists, “You can’t have the pound, you won’t be able to stay in the EU”;  the tone should have been much more understanding, and present a much smaller target to Alex Salmond. Alex Salmond was without question the shrewdest politician client YouGov had ever had (he had been a client in the past); he was Britain’s most skilful political campaigner. He had successfully generated his own fear factor about the NHS in response to the fears generated by Better Together, and the Yes campaign had simply been much more effective and visible. Peter Kellner said only a small number of ‘Don’t knows’ would actually vote in the referendum; the latest YouGov poll would be out at 10 pm tonight and he was not in a position to talk about it. A Yes vote might force David Cameron from office, and it would be bad also for Ed Miliband; it was after all Labour voters who had moved over to the nationalist camp. He said there would be no exit polls on the 18^th as they were too expensive and very complex to carry out reliably. The result of the referendum should be known by breakfast time on September the 19^th.

FPA Vice President, Jurgen Kronig and YouGov President, Peter Kellner