Professor Vernon Bogdanor on Britain's stability

Professor Vernon Bogdanor 

Professor Vernon Bogdanor from King's College London told FPA members however unpredictable the outcome of the General Election, Britain was much less unstable than many countries. There's no far right or far left political parties and no great economic instability. It was important to retain a sense of perspective.

The EU had caused nothing but problems for all Prime Ministers since the 1950's and currently it was immigration at the top of the agenda. There will be no Treaty changes and David Cameron, he said, was raising expectations about renegotiation which he could not meet. 

One scenario after May the 8th was the SNP supporting a minority Labour Government which they would not wish to destabilise before the Scottish Elections in Spring 2016. Professor Bogdanor said the current electoral system exacerbated and exaggerated the differences that increased the pressure for Scottish separation from the United Kingdom. 

A full house at FPA this morning

The politics of ideology was being replaced by the politics of identity. The question was no longer capitalism or socialism, it was, what is British? Can you be British and Scottish? Can you be British and European? 

In a globalized economy people with low skills were losing out and felt left out by the main political parties; hence the rise of UKIP and the Greens. UKIP was the first popular insurgent mass movement since the Second World War, he said.

Professor Bogdanor said he was personally in favour of electoral reform with the introduction of the Single Transferable Vote; in favour of a written constitution; and in favour of lowering the voting age to sixteen. It might help young people pick up the habit of voting. 

What happens if there is another hung Parliament after the General Election?

Peter Riddell, Director of the Institute for Government

Robert Hazell and Peter Riddell briefed FPA members in detail on what might happen after May the 8th as negotiations take place to form a new Government.

A potted summary of their presentation is available here.

All the polls indicated a hung Parliament, and it was likely that 2015 would be much more complicated than 2010. The Liberal Democrats would have fewer MPs, the SNP appeared to be doing very well in Scotland and the UKIP vote would be up by a large percentage.

Professor Robert Hazell, Director of the Constitution Unit, UCL

It would probably take longer than five days to form a Government and during that time the Prime Minister would remain at Number 10 until it was clear who could command the confidence of MPs in the House of Commons.

The party leaders would also be under much greater pressure to consult; David Cameron would probably be required this time to seek the approval of all Conservative MPs for any coalition agreement. 

Professor Hazell said minority Governments could survive and indeed thrive. There could be four outcomes of the General Election: a single party majority Government (which looked unlikely), a majority coalition, a minority Government, or a minority coalition.

There was only likely to be a "Grand Coalition" of Conservatives and Labour if there was a serious national crisis concerning security or the international economy. Professor Hazell thought it likely there would be a series of hung Parliaments in years to come. They were not prepared to predict the outcome. 

Labour's Biggest Business Donor: Why the UK needs a much lower exchange rate for the Pound

John Mills, Chairman of JML, The Pound Campaign and Business for Britain 

Labour Party donor and businessman John Mills  told FPA members that as someone close to the realities of the commercial world he was only too aware that the UK was miles behind what's happening in the Far East. The amount of GDP we invest is pitifully low at 14% (in China it's 46%) manufacturing and productivity had fallen dramatically and we have a chronic balance of payments problem. This was caused by a large trade deficit and the transfer of huge sums abroad. Between 2000 and 2010 the UK had sold £ 600 Billion of portfolio assets - things like railways and energy companies. John Mills said the only way to get the economy going was to reverse these trends and get the exchange rate down. He is bringing out a book later in March laying out how he thinks we can revive our economy and cut the government deficit without damaging and unnecessary austerity. More @ http://www.john-mills.info/call-to-action 

Is the UK prepared for terrorist attacks?

Dr.Sally Leivesley briefing FPA members 

Expert in catastrophic risk Dr.Sally Leivesley told FPA members there was an escalation in the rate of radicalisation of young people, and this process could happen entirely online - without, for instance, the involvement of radical preachers. Terrorism was seen as a career choice and we needed to offer young people other careers that achieved recognition and made a difference. It was misleading to talk of "lone wolf" attacks; terrorists were getting very good at counter surveillance and communications. The only real "lone wolf" of recent times was Anders Breivik in Norway in 2011. Terror plots in cities were more numerous, and below the radar. We were now looking at shock attacks from groups of young people; young women wearing suicide vests were especially dangerous as young women are perceived as less threatening. She said there was an emerging intelligence operation by terrorist groups to use cyber resources against states  - they could be used with pinpoint accuracy against the water, energy and communications resources of big cities. The international community needed to be prepared for attacks and to take offensive and disruptive operations online against groups like ISIS. Asked whether a terrorist attack in London was imminent her assessment was that it could happen at any time. When the police spoke of having "no active intelligence of a plot" all they meant was they didn't know. 

King Richard III’s reinterment

Dr.Stone from the Richard III Society    

Dr.Phil Stone, Chairman of the Richard III Society briefed FPA members on the details of the various services and events taking place in Leicester during the week of Richard III's reinterment in the Cathedral on March 26th. It was going to be a remarkable event - justice will be done as the King's remains are reinterred with dignity and honour. The reputation of a man who did much for his country will be restored and history set right. Dr.Stone said the discovery of Richard's remains had had an amazing impact on the city with a new Visitor Centre built and huge publicity around the world. 

Denis MacShane on "Brexit"

Denis MacShane holding up his new book "Brexit"      

Former Europe Minister Denis MacShane told FPA members that different and increasingly strong currents - political, economic, media, cultural, identity, historic - were coming together into one powerful confluence that threatened to take Britain out of the European Union. He hoped on May the 8th his book would become irrelevant, and all copies pulped. But he worried that if David Cameron wins the election on May the 7th,  an In Out referendum will dominate UK politics for years, cause terrible trouble after a likely No vote, and present a nightmare to the Americans.

Magna Carta 800

Sir Robert Worcester, Chairman of the Magna Carta 800^th anniversary Committee, told FPA members that commemorations were going on across the Commonwealth especially in India, Australia and the West Indies, as well as elsewhere in the world. He outlined the main events of 2015 which include an exhibition at the British Library and international conferences in the United States and Eastern Europe.

Sir Robert Worcester

Magna Carta had resonance outside Great Britain and the English-speaking world. It was Britain’s greatest export and Sir Robert said he was proud that he himself had first seen the Lincoln Magna Carta at an exhibition in New York in 1940 at the age of seven. 

Sir Robert Worcester and FPA President Paola Totaro